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Home » US stocks have slumped after Trump ruled out the recession
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US stocks have slumped after Trump ruled out the recession

adminBy adminMarch 10, 2025No Comments5 Mins Read0 Views
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The Nasdaq slides into the correction area.

Wall Street sailed a new round of turbulence to begin a week of trading after President Donald Trump did not rule out a tariff-driven recession.

As of 12:12pm on March 10th, Blue Chip Dow Jones Industrial Arage had fallen 495 points (1.16%).

The Tech Heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has officially moved into the revised territory (down 10% from the highest) with a plunge 620 points or more (over 3.41%). The wider S&P 500 eliminated more than 124 points, or about 2.17%.

The Treasury’s yields have also turned red all over the board as traders sought shelter amidst volatility. The benchmark decade fell to about 4.22%. I slid at less than 4% in two years, but I struggled to hold 4.53% in 30 years.

Economic fears crossed financial markets as investors worried that the global trade dispute would ignite a recession. These concerns got worse after Trump refused to rule out the possibility of a recession.

“I hate predicting such things,” Trump said in a March 9 interview with Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Baltilomo.”

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“What we’re doing is so big, so there’s a transition period,” he said. “We bring wealth to America. That’s a big deal. And there is always a period… it takes a little time, it takes a little time. ”

The president explained that his tariff plans would protect Americans after “destruction for decades.”

“We’re not torn apart by tariffs anymore,” he said.

Later, when Air Force reporters called for further clarity, Trump said, “Who knows?”

Trump recently imposed a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, doubled the tax on China. A few days later, he extended a one-month suspension for all products covering the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreements for all products in Canada and Mexico.

In a Truth Social Post on March 6, Trump said he agreed to the suspension “as a lodging” for Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

The administration is also poised to implement mutual tariffs on all US trading partners next month.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is more decisive, telling NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on March 9th that he “never bets on the recession.” Lutnick, a former Wall Street executive, said the president’s plan would “grow our economy in ways we have never grown before.”

“There’s no recession in America,” Rutnick said. “The global tariffs will collapse because President Trump said: “You want to charge us 100%? We charge 100%.

“So, if Donald Trump is bringing growth to America, I would never have put a bet on the recession.”

The story of the recession is coming back

As we headed towards March, widely viewed economic indicators began flashing red.

The Federal Reserve estimates of Atlanta’s GDPNOW model showed a contraction of 2.4% in the first quarter of 2025. For several weeks, they had predicted a positive GDP growth rate.

With first quarter growth estimated, regional central bank economists have tried to clarify what the trackers are proposing.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the House Committee on Washington's Monetary Policy on February 12, 2025 (Madalina Vasilliu/Epoch Times)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before a House Committee on Washington’s Monetary Policy on February 12, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Patrick Higgins, a policy advisor and economist for the federal government of Atlanta, determined that gold imports had driven a major downward revision.

“While GDPNOW distinguishes gold from other imports, the Bureau of Economic Analysis writes on social media platform X on March 7th, when summarizing net exports in a comprehensive tally within GDP.”

“Removing gold from imports and exports will increase both GDPNOW’s topline growth forecast and net export contribution to that forecast by about 2%.”

In January, the US imported a record $329.5 billion in goods, an increase of $36 billion from the previous month. Jump Jump of goods imports Almost 60% of Jump Jump was driven by the import of completed metals.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell eased market concerns and told an audience last week that the US economy is “in a good place.” However, he noted that the outlook could evolve as business and family emotions weaken.

“It remains to be seen how these developments will affect future spending and investments. In a March 7 speech at the US Monetary Policy Forum, Powell said:

The sentiment and trust index of key consumers, including the conference committee and the University of Michigan, have been fighting for the past two months.

Other market watchers are shrugging their worries about the recession.

Torsten Sloak, chief economist at Apollowells Management, believes the US may witness “slack stagflation” rather than a recession.

“Combining Doge (the government’s efficiency bureau) and tariffs is a mild, temporary shock to the economy, putting a modest upward pressure on inflation on GDP and a modest downward pressure.”

Stagflation, reminiscent of the 1970s, is an economic environment consisting of growing anemia, high inflation and increasing unemployment.

“Investors must navigate the possibilities of stagflation,” Joe Tigay, portfolio manager for the Catalyst Nasdaq-100 Hedged Equity Fund, said in an emailed note to the Epoch Times.

But there’s panic on the streets, but investors need to stay calm, says Nancy Tengler, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at Laffer Tengler Investments.

“When you’re in the middle of a fix, it’s always been unbearable and I think that’s where we are,” Tenler said in a memo sent to the Epoch Times by email.

“The important thing to highlight here is that it was revised once every 12 months and it’s always spurring something.”

The next catalyst for stocks will likely be the February Consumer Price Index Report. According to Cleveland Fed’s Nowcasting model, annual inflation is expected to fall from the current 3% to 2.8%.



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